How long the protection from existing vaccines lasts is key to the size of the potential market for booster shots.
Omar Marques/Getty ImagesNew doubts about the need for booster vaccines against Covid-19 could weaken the case for more gains in shares of companies such as Moderna and BioNTech.
The author of a new study published in the journal Nature on Monday told the New York Times that data he gathered on humoral immune responses in people who had received Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine was a “very, very good sign” for the durability of protection provided by messenger RNA-based vaccines.
The bull case for companies that produce those vaccines, including Moderna (ticker: MRNA) and BioNTech (BNTX), is based on the assumption of a reasonably robust market for Covid-19 vaccine booster shots.
The study in Nature, which found high levels of germinal center B cells in the lymph nodes of patients at least 12 weeks after they received their second vaccine dose, could raise questions about how big that booster market will actually be.
While both BioNTech and Moderna have substantial pipelines of drugs under development, many of those programs are in relatively early stages. The financial models of analysts polled by FactSet don’t factor in revenue from any other Moderna product until 2024, or any other BioNTech product until 2023. Those analysts, meanwhile, expect $6.5 billion in Covid-19 vaccine revenues for BioNTech in 2022, and $12 billion for Moderna that year.
The companies remain confident in demand for their Covid-19 vaccines. In an interview with Barron’s published over the weekend, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said that he thinks that the booster market is “even larger” than he thought it was two months ago.
“More than ever, we believe that coronavirus vaccines won’t provide lifelong immunity,” he said.
U.S. health officials, however, have made clear that they have not yet been convinced of the need for booster shots. In a presentation last week, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said that there was “no data to support recommendations for booster,” but that the agency would continue to monitor the evidence.
The article published in Nature early Monday, based on work by scientists at the Washington University School of Medicine and other institutions, examined the effect of messenger RNA-based vaccines on markers of humoral immunity, which could indicate long-lasting protection from the virus. By studying the lymph nodes of patients, the study found surprisingly high levels of what are known as germinal center B cells three months after vaccination.
“Our studies demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-based vaccination of humans induces a persistent [germinal centre] B cell response, enabling the generation of robust humoral immunity,” the study says.
Speaking to the New York Times, the study’s lead author, Dr. Ali Ellebedy, said that the durability of the responses in the germinal center was a good sign for the mRNA-based vaccines offering longer-term protection. “The fact that the reactions continued for almost four months after vaccination — that’s a very, very good sign,” he told the paper.
Another expert consulted by the paper said that only changes in the virus, not waning of immunity, would require a booster.
The spread of virus variants, meanwhile, is raising global concerns, even as restrictions in the U.S. are lifting. Sydney instituted a two-week lockdown as cases of the Delta variant climbed there, and The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel was reinstating some mask requirements after some vaccinated people contracted the Delta variant.
Meanwhile, on Sunday, AstraZeneca (AZN) said that it had begun dosing participants in a Phase 2/3 trial of a new version of its Covid-19 vaccine designed to protect against the Beta variant of the virus, also known as the South African variant.
Moderna shares were up 0.9% early Monday, while BioNTech’s American depositary receipt was down 0.4%. AstraZeneca ’s ADR was flat.
Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at josh.nathan-kazis@barrons.com
June 28, 2021 at 08:03PM
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Will We Need Booster Vaccines for Covid-19? Study Raises Doubts. - Barron's
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